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Friday, February 25, 2011

United States Preparing to Become the World's 3rd Largest Economic


The chief economist at Citigroup lays down the facts as far as China and India's major growth and our decline.

"We expect strong growth in the world economy until 2050, with average real GDP growth rates of 4.6 percent per annum until 2030 and 3.8 percent per annum between 2030 and 2050, as a result, world GDP should rise in real PPP-adjusted terms from $72 trillion in 2010 to $380 trillion dollars in 2050. China should overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2020, then be overtaken by India by 2050. Expect booms and busts. Occasionally, there will be growth disasters, driven by poor policy, conflicts, or natural disasters. When it comes to that, don't believe that 'this time it's different'. For poor countries with large young populations, growing fast should be easy: open up, create some form of market economy, invest in human and physical capital, don't be unlucky and don't blow it. Catch-up and convergence should do the rest."

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